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Wise after Dumilé

3 janvier 2013, 20:00

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I woke up yesterday, as you probably did, expecting that Dumilé had progressed to a warning class III during the night. I spent the night waking up with a start every time I heard suspicious noises. Like when the gusts sent a few wooden chairs fl ying, scaring the hell out of me. Or when they pushed open my windows from the outside, through a small crack that I had left open so I would be able to hear the apocalyptic sound of the wind howling. In the end, the howling was so scary that every now and then I had to check whether my car was still fi rmly stuck to the ground.

In any event, I woke up to find that we were still under a cyclone warning class II. What I went through the night before was certainly not an experience associated with a cyclone warning class II! To what extent, I wondered, does the class system actually refl ect the level of danger to us? Weren’t the authorities being a tad irresponsible, sending out the message that there’s no danger? Shouldn’t precaution be better than cure? The cyclone warning system is explained on the met service website. A cyclone warning class 1 is issued, it says, “ 36 to 48 hours before Mauritius or Rodrigues is likely to be affected by gusts reaching 120 km/ h.” The warning passes to a class II “ so as to allow, as far as practicable, 12 hours of daylight before the occurrence of gusts of 120 kilometers ( km) per hour.” It progresses to a class III “ so as to allow, as far as practicable, 6 hours of daylight before the occurrence of gusts of 120 kilometers ( km) per hour” and fi nally a cyclone warning class IV is “ issued when gusts of 120 km per hour have been recorded and are expected to continue to occur.” Doesn’t the defi nition seem rather fl exible to you? Shouldn’t the cyclone warning class system include in the spirit of its defi nition, if not in its letter, the need to properly communicate to the population the level of danger a cyclone might present? So that adequate precautions can be taken? In a weather report issued at 10 am yesterday, the met services say that the “ highest gusts recorded during the past hours were of the order of 100km/ h” and further informs us that “ gusts of the order of 110 km/ h may occur”. That’s only 10 km/ h less than the 120 km/ h we’re to expect during a class IV! Now, as you know, I am no weather expert but a cyclone warning system is meant to raise the public’s awareness on the level of danger to expect so as to enable it to take the necessary precautions.

But, the day ordinary people start thinking they know better than the professionals ( and it’s been happening too often recently with the met services), is the day a system needs to be reviewed.
 

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